Methodology of demographic processes study.

Analysis and estimation of demographic processes in Ternopil region districts.

 

Demography is the science about the population (from “demos” – people, “grapho” – to describe), or the statistics of population.

The statistical study of population is conducted in two basic directions:

1. Description of population on the set time (its quantity, composition, features of settling apart and others like that) – the so called statistics of population;

2. Description of processes of change of quantity of population – a dynamics or the motion of population. The last one in the last turn divides into the  mechanical motion of population ( the changes which take place under the act of migrations — migratory processes) and so called natural motion of population (the changes, that take place as a result of birth-rate and death rate and characterize the processes of recreation of population).

The indices of birth-rate, death rate, natural increase, average duration of life belong to the basic demographic indicators, and also one of age-old indices of death rate is the death rate of infants, that is children under the age of 1 year.

A birth-rate, as well as other demographic phenomena, is determined by statistical indices.

The general index of birth-rate settles accounts foremost. As well as most indices of natural increase, it is determined by the number of born in a calculation on a 1000 population:

General index of birth-rate (frequency of birth-rate)	=	Number of born alive per year × 1000
		Average annual quantity of population

 

But the process of recreation of population can be described more precisely, if to expect a birth-rate not among all population, but only among the women of fertile age (15-49 years). This index is named the special index of birth-rate (fertility, fecundity) and it is settled thus:

Special index of birth-rate	=	Number of born alive per year • 1000
		Number of women in age of 15-49 years

Except for the above-mentioned such special indices are used:

•  the total index of recreation of population – the number of the children born by a woman during the fertile period of her life (15-49 years);

•  the brutto-coefficient of recreation – the number of the girls born by a woman in age of 15-49 years;

•  the netto-coefficient, or the cleared index of recreation- the amount
of the girls born in the middle by one woman for all reproductive
period of her life, that attained age, which a woman at their birth was in.

One of major demographic indicators of public health is a death rate, which characterizes the health of population from the point of view of distribution of the most heavy pathology.

The general index of death rate characterizes the frequency of cases of death per year on  1000 population, that lives on the concrete territory. It is calculated this way:

General index of death rate	=	Number of deceased per × 1000 year
		Average annual quantity of population

 

The special indices of death rate are a death rate for the article (at men and women), after age (in separate age groups) and after reasons (from separate classes, groups and nosology forms of diseases).

A maternal death rate is the statistical concept related to the death of woman during pregnancy or during 42 days after its ending, regardless of duration and localization of pregnancy, from some reason related to pregnancy either by burdened by its conduct, but not from an accident or other casual reasons.

A late maternal death rate is related to the death of woman from direct or indirect obstetric reasons, later than in 42 days, but before one year upon termination of pregnancy.

Death rate of infants is one of age indices of the death rate. It characterizes the frequency of death of children of the first year of life.

The death rate of infants is selected from the problem of death rate as a result of its social significance.

The formula of calculation of level of death rate of infants after the WHO recommendations is such:

Level of death rate   of babies	=	Number of deceased under the age of 1 year from the generation of the current year × 1000	+	Number of deceased under the age of 1 year from a generation of the last year × 1000
		Number of children which were born living in a current year		Number of children who were born living in the last year

                                           

A death rate in the neonatal, early neonatal and post neonatal periods of life of child is separately selected.

A neonatal period begins from the birth of child and is closed in 28 complete days after the birth.

The neonatal death rate is the death rate among born living during the first 28 complete days of life – is determined after a formula:

Number of children who died during the first 28 complete days of life      • 1000

Number of born living in a current year

An early neonatal period engulfs the first seven days or 168 o’clock of life. A death rate in an early neonatal period is determined so:

Number of deceased during 7 days (168 hours life) • 1000

Number of born living in a current year

The period of life of a child after the first complete 28 days is named post neonatal (29 days-12 months). A death rate in this period is determined by a formula:

Number of children, that died in the age of 29 days-12 months • 1000
Number of children who were born living in a current year	–	Number of children who died on the first month of life

 

The level of perinatal death rate is determined by a formula:

 

Number of children who were born dead	+	Number of children, that died during the first seven days	·1000
Number of children who were born living and dead

Thus, first seven days of life are taken into account for the calculation of indices of death rate of infants and perinatal death rate.

 

1. Birth-rate

According to WHO, the criteria of live birth are: pregnancy term 22 weeks and more, weight 450 g and anymore, and also presence of palpitation. But in Ukraine there were established next criteria of live birth: pregnancy term 28 weeks and more, weight 1000 g and more, and also presence of palpitation and breathing.

Levels of birth-rate after WHO:

1.     Low level – to 15 ‰.

2.     Average level – 15 ‰ – 25‰.

3.     High level – 25‰ and anymore.

 The birth-rate level in Ukraine after 2006 р. was 9,0 ‰, which means that a birth-rate is at low level.

The greater part of the factors that influence on a birth-rate, greater part is instrumental in its diminishment. The following ones belong to these factors:

•   decrease of marriages number and increasing of divorces number;

•   active enlist of women to public life

•   disproportion in sexual population composition, irrespective of the reasons, that cause it. They are features of development of production relations, migratory  processes, consequences of wars;

•   employment of certain part of women in productions with the dangerous and harmful conditions of labors;

•   unsatisfactory state of women reproduction health;

•   economic situation in society.

It must be stressed that the main reason which stipulates the low levels and unaffordable tendency of birth – rate indexes’ is the negative influence of economic situation during last years in the country.

 

2. General death rate.

Levels of general death rate after WHO:

1.     Low level – to 9 ‰.

2.     Average level –  9 ‰.– 15 ‰

3.     High level – 15‰ and anymore.

The general death rate level in Ukraine after 2006 year was 16,6 ‰, which means  that  general death is at high level.

There is the average index of death rate in Europe – 10,5 ‰  (1995 year). And the lowest level is in Netherlands – 8,6 ‰ .

The indices of general death rate of both men and women in Ukraine are higher, than in marked such called “demographic standard” countries, death rate among the rural population is in 1,5 times higher than in a city. The men death rate in Ukraine can be defined as “over death rate”. Comparative with the developed countries of foreign it results in reduction of their life on 10-15 years.

 According to separate reasons the general death rate structure among the population of Ukraine is stable enough. First place is taken by illnesses of the blood circulation system (60,5 %), on the second place are malignant new formations (13,5 %), on the third are accidents, poisonings and traumas (9,7), on fourth are illnesses of organs of breathing (6,9). Together they make from 85 to 95 % of all cases of death.

 

3. Infants death rate (death rate of children of the first year).

Levels of death rate of infants   for WHO:

1.     Low level – to 20 ‰.

2.     Average level – 20 ‰.– 50 ‰

 3. High level – 50 ‰ and anymore

The level of infants’ death rate in Ukraine after 2006 year was 9,99 ‰, that means  that  the infants death rate is at low level.

Infants death rate:

а) prenatal reasons – 38 %

б) congenital vices of development – 28 %

в) accidents, poisonings, traumas – 8 %

г) illnesses of breathing – 8 %

The death rate of children under one year age is one of the most sensible indicators  of socio-economic development level of society, which accumulates  the level of education and culture, environment state, efficiency of prophylactic measures, level of availability and quality of medical care, distributing of material and social welfares in society.

In the economic successful countries the infants death rate is 8-10 ‰. In developing countries, infants death rate far more higher: in African region it hesitates within the limits of 76-130 for 1000 new born, in India and Nepal – 100-110.

 

4. Average life duration is the meaumber of years that the generation (the persons of the same age) has to live on condition, that the coefficient of fatality rate is permanent. Men in Ukraine lives 63 years, women – 74 years (for comparison in Sweden men live on the average 77 years, women 82 years)

Description of basic types of population pathology at the end of the XX century

Indices, basic descriptions of health	Type of pathology
	unepidemic (economically successful countries)	intermediate (not enough economically developed countries)	epidemic (developing countries)
Levels of general death rate (for 1000 population)	low (8-12)	average (13-16)	high (17-20 and more)
Death rate levels of infants (on 1 000 born  living)	low (6-15)	average (16-30)	high (30-60 and more)
Expected average life-duration (years)	high (65-75 and more)	average (50-65)	low (40-50)
Population age structure	regressive	stationary	progressive
Rate of get old population (specific gravity of persons senior 60 years, %)	considerable (15-20)	moderate (5-10)	low (below 5)
Illnesses which take leading seats in the structure of death rate	chronic unepidemic	chronic epidemic	infectious

 

 A demographic situation in Ukraine during the last decade is characterized as unsatisfactory, because of economic destabilization, decline of population standard life, degradation of social sphere, catastrophic worsening the environment state, sharpening of criminality situation.

It should be noted that the influence on a demographic situation is important part of the Ukrainian social policy, that why they are working on. Increasing of birth-rate and decreasing of population death rate and especially infants death rate, and also increasing of life- duration.

 

The demographic situation in Ukraine: present state, tendencies and predictions

The demographic situation in Ukraine is characterized by an accumulation of tendencies that are reaching crisis proportions. The population is decreasing, with an increase in the death rate among working-age people and a negative balance of external migration. Under these conditions, a deterioration in interethnic and interreligious relations in society is possible against a background of a worsening socioeconomic situation for most of the population.

In this article, the basic indices characterizing both the current state and the trends of the demographic situation in Ukraine will be presented and analyzed. These include both the population statistics and the factors and consequences that can be derived from those statistics.

One caution that needs to be taken into account regarding the statistics is the lack of a census on the background of active demographic processes, including migratory processes, for a considerable period of time. This gap is connected with several factors that followed the breakup of the USSR, the formation of independent states, and the transformation of their socioeconomic structure. This transformation included a reformation of the organs of state authority, among the functions, of which is registering various population flows. In addition, the systems for collecting and processing information were also reformed, which has both resulted in a level of incompleteness in the register of information and made the data difficult to compare.

As a result, only certain data for the year 2000 are used in this article, while the main data set used is limited to that for the year 1999.

 

The numbers and sociodemographic structure of the population

Dynamics of the population’s numbers

According to data from the census of 1989, the population of Ukraine numbered 51.7 million persons. At the beginning of 1993, it reached its highest level for the entire postwar period – 52.3 million persons. However, this increase in the population did not occur due to natural growth, but was a result of migration.

In general, the years 1991-93 were the period of the most active migratory processes among the republics of the former USSR, and this was particularly true for Ukraine. Many people were striving to return to their ethnic or historical homelands in order to receive citizenship there in connection with the breakup of the Soviet Union and the rise of independent national states on its former territory. In addition, certaiative peoples and ethnic groups that had earlier been forcibly deported from the territory of Ukraine were rehabilitated, and their rights were restored at the end of 1989. The descendants of these individuals got the opportunity to return to their historical homeland at the beginning of the 1990s. At a minimum, over the period 1990-99,1.6 million persons came to Ukraine from the countries of the former USSR to take up permanent residence. All these factors brought about significant migratory flows into Ukraine primarily over the course of the years 1990-93. A negative balance of external migration was first recorded in 1994, and at this point the growth of the population due to migration ceased.

The natural growth of the population had already revealed a tendency to fall off in 1991, when the death rate in Ukraine exceeded the birth rate for the first time in the postwar period-the coefficient of natural growth per 1000 persons in the population came to -0.8.6 The negative trend was reinforced in the following years, and in the year 2000 it reached a value of -7.5.7

As a result, after 1993 a reduction in the absolute numbers of Ukraine‘s population began. Over the course of the years 1993-2000, the population of Ukraine dropped by 2.9 million persons, from 52.2 million persons to 49.3 million. Of that number, four-fifths of the losses have been due to natural population losses (an excess of the death rate over the birth rate) and one-fourth as a consequence of migratory processes (an excess of the level of emigration over the level of immigration).

Factors determining the dynamics of populatioumbers

The causes of reductions in populatioumbers are: a reduction in the birth rate, an increase in the death rate, the unsatisfactory state of the health of the population accompanying the low quality of and insufficient access to the health care system in the country, and an excess of the level of emigration over the level of immigration.

The birth rate.

Over the period 1991-2000, the number of births per 1,000 persons in the population dropped by almost forty percent (from 12.7 in 1990 to 7.8 in 2000), and in absolute numbers by more than forty percent as well; while 657,200 persons were bora in 1990, 385,100 were bom in 2000. The reduction in the birth rate in rural areas of the country is reaching crisis proportions. According to data from the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, out of the Ukraine‘s 28,794 villages, not a single child was born in 12,673 of them in 1999. There are no children aged between six and fifteen in almost one thousand villages.

Against this background of a falling birth rate, the number of abortions remains stable and high. According to data from the Ministry of Health Care of Ukraine, 470,000 abortions were registered in the country in 1999.9 As a point of comparison, the number of births in 1999 came to 389,200 persons. For 320 of each 100,000 womeot giving birth as a result of abortion annually, the procedure ends in death.

Overall, the birth rate coefficient in Ukraine is one of the lowest among European countries (including the post-Communist countries). In the year 2000, the birth rate coefficient reached 7.8 in Ukraine. Lower figures were registered only in Bulgaria (7.7), Latvia (7.6), and Russia (7.6).

The death rate.

In contrast to the birth rate, the death rate in Ukraine is one of the highest in Europe. In 2000, the general coefficient of the death rate reached 15.3, compared to 10.6 in the countries of the European Union. Over the years 1991-2000, an increase of the death rate has been recorded in practically all age groups (with the exception of the age group 1-14), but the death rate is especially high among those of working age. The death rate index for working-age people grew by a factor of eight in the period 1991-2000, and the portion of the overall death rate reflecting people of working age reached almost twenty-five percent.

The high death rate among working-age men is an especially alarming phenomenon, capable of causing significant demographic deformations. This level is estimated to be the highest in the world. The death rate of men thus exceeds the death rate of women by two or three times in all age groups, but the difference is especially noticeable in the middle age groups of 30-45 years-that is, within the boundaries of the reproductive age.

Among the reasons for the high death rate among the working-age population since 1990, the most important is that of unnatural causes, including accidents, murders, and suicides. The main unnatural cause reflected in the death rate is suicide. The index of instances of suicide per 100,000 in the population is growing constantly: while in 1999 it came to 20.6, in 2000 it came to 29.4.

The population’s state of health, the quality of and access to health care. The indices of the state of health of Ukraine‘s population are characterized by a steady worsening tendency. At the same time, the state of the health care system is also getting worse. The number of medical establishments is decreasing and the level of their financing by the state has fallen to a critical level. The transition of medicine towards a pay-for-care basis has significantly limited access to health care for the overwhelming majority of the population.

Up to 70 million instances of sickness are registered annually in Ukraine. According to data from the Ukrainian Institute for Public Health, only 4.4 percent of men and 2.9 percent of women of working age in the country have high indices of health and are in the so-called safety zone; 22.1 percent of men and 19.4 percent of women are in average health, while 73.5 percent of men and 77.7 percent of women have one degree or another of sickness. Coincidental with a general fall in the birth rate, the number of children with chronic illnesses and of children who are invalids is growing. Out of every hundred children born today in Ukraine, twenty-five are either born with pathologies or acquire them.

The so-called social illnesses-such as tuberculosis, syphilis, or HIV/AIDS- are spreading. The incidence of tuberculosis more than doubled over the period 1990-1999, and the death rate from this illness increased by almost two and a half times. About nine thousand people die from tuberculosis annually, more than 80 percent of them of working age (15 to 59). There is an increasing tendency for growth in the incidence of tuberculosis among children and, for the period 1995-1999, the corresponding index rose by 55 percent. The number of instances involving entire families, and also newborns, is increasing. Altogether, according to preliminary data, as of the beginning of 2001 about 625,000 persons were registered as being ill with this disease in Ukraine, a number that represents 1.4 percent of the country’s population and bears witness to the fact that Ukraine is experiencing an epidemic of tuberculosis.

Syphilis is encountered in Ukraine almost a hundred times more frequently than in the countries of Eastern and Central Europe. Over the period 1990-99, the number of instances of syphilis in the country increased by more than eighteen times (from 3,100 in 1990 to 56,800 in 1999). The fact that the disease is spreading among children and juveniles suggests that the outlook is bleak. The index of the number of illnesses per 100,000 in the population of that age has grown over the period 1994-99, among children by more than four times and among juveniles by almost 150 percent.

Ukraine, in the opinion of experts from UNAIDS and the WHO, has the “most dramatic” epidemic situation with regard to HIV/AIDS among the countries of the former USSR. As of the end of 2000, the number of officially registered cases of HIV infection came to about 36,000 persons. However, specialists assume that the number of persons ill with this disease in Ukraine is far higher than the officially registered number-perhaps around 285,000-and about 75 percent of those infected are young people in the age range 15-29.

Four regions (oblasts) in Ukraine (the Dnepropetrovsk, Donetsk, Nikolaev, and Odessa Regions) are experiencing an epidemic of HIV/AIDS. In these regions, the epidemic threshold established by the WHO is exceeded by three or four times at 70 instances of sickness per 100,000 persons in the population. The epidemiological situation is complicated by at least two factors, the influence of which could lead to a full-scale epidemic. First, the rate at which HIV/AIDS is spreading: Ukraine is the leader among European countries with about 500 new cases being registered monthly. By way of comparison, in Poland there are no more than 40 new cases per month. Second, the disease has gone beyond the limits of the group at risk and is hitting the general population, including children and young people.

On the whole, according to estimates made by specialists, if the tendencies for the spread of tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS are not overcome in the very nearest future, then in five to seven years one in every three inhabitants of Ukraine will be struck by one or the other of these diseases.

The worsening indices for the state of the population’s health notwithstanding, there is also a worsening in the quality of the country’s health care. In the index of outlays per inhabitant for health care, Ukraine occupies positioumber 111 among the 191 countries of the world, and position number eight among the countries of the CIS. In terms of level of achievement of the goals of health care, Ukraine occupies positioumber 60. Not only are outlays for health care per inhabitant in the country insufficient, they also demonstrate a tendency toward steady decline. In 1997, per capita health care outlays came to $47.30, while in 1998 they were $32.20, and in 2000, only $13.00. Overall, only 2.7 percent of GDP in Ukraine is directed at health care needs (the world standard being eight percent).

The growing proportion of pay-for-care medical services and their cost, which is incompatible with the average wage in the country, are progressively reducing the access to medical care for the overwhelming majority of the population. Instances of sick people dying because they are unable to pay for the necessary medical services or medicines are no longer a rarity. While he was Prime Minister of Ukraine, V.Iushchenko admitted that ten percent of Ukraine‘s citizens do not have the possibility of availing themselves of medical aid. In the opinion of specialists, the real figure is far higher. This is confirmed by the results of a nationwide sociological poll conducted by UCEPS in February-March 2001, in which more than half the respondents (54.5 percent) reported that they had had to decline medical examination or aid due to a lack of means to pay for it.

A threatening situation has developed with regard to medical aid for children living in rural areas. According to data from the Ministry of Health Care of Ukraine, 95 percent of parents of rural children do not ask for medical aid due to the distance to medical establishments or due to an inability to pay.

The population’s socioeconomic situation.

The dynamics of the basic socioeconomic indices for 1990-2000 testify to a sharp decline in the quality of life for the overwhelming majority of the country’s population. The basic factors determining the economic situation of the population over the course of that period of time were a loss of savings brought about by the hyperinflation of 1991-93, the spread of unemployment, a decrease in monetary income (wages and pensions), and a depreciation in the value of that income as a consequence of inflation.

According to data from selective studies of the work force using the methodology of the International Association of Trade Unions, the level of unemployment came to 11.9 percent in 2000 among the economically active population aged 15-70. Among working age people, unemployment came to 12.5 percent. The level of registered unemployment was 4.2 percent of the working age population. However, according to expert estimates, taking hidden unemployment into account, the proportion of the economically active population without work reaches 35-40 percent. In this regard, closer inspection shows some extraordinarily negative signs of unemployment in Ukraine. Almost one third (30 percent) of the unemployed are young people aged 15-24. Unemployment is acquiring a nature associated with economic depression. In 1999, more than half the unemployed (56.3 percent) had not had work for more than a year, while the proportion of those who had not had work for more than three years increased from 1.3 percent in 1998 to 3.8 percent in 1999. The level of so-called family unemployment is growing, this phenomenon being especially characteristic of small towns and satellite towns to major industrial complexes.

At the same time, having work does not guarantee a good standard of living. In the first place, the wage level in Ukraine is critically low. The average monthly wage in 2000 came to 230 grivnas (US$42), and only covered 85 percent of the minimum subsistence level. In addition, arrears in wage payments are a chronic problem, in spite of some improvement in the situation in 2000. As of 1 January 2001 the total amount of arrears in payment of wages came to 4.9 billion grivnas (about US$9 million). As a result, there is a steady trend toward a reduction in the level of the income of the population. At present in Ukraine there are more than one million families in which the per capita income does not reach 50 grivnas (US$9) a month, while in more than one hundred thousand families it does not exceed 20 grivnas (US$3.60).

The existence of poverty and destitution was officially admitted in Ukraine only in 2000; at that time, 27.8 percent of the population (13.7 million persons) was considered to belong to the category of the impoverished, and 14.2 percent (almost 7 million persons), to the category of the destitute. Thus there are grounds for predicting that poverty will be a persistent and chronic problem. This is confirmed, in particular, by the poverty of families with children, and particularly of families with numerous children. In about 78 percent of families classified as impoverished, one of the adults has work. Where both parents have work, 26.1 percent of families with children are impoverished. If the current socioeconomic conditions persist, children from impoverished families will be unable to have quality health care and education, and consequently a vocation, and will be doomed to hereditary poverty. In addition, under conditions of spreading unemployment and poverty, the number of marriages is going down (the index of the number of marriages per 1,000 persons fell from 9.3 in 1990 to 5.5 in 2000). This leads, if not to a decrease in reproduction of the population, then to the growth of incomplete families and the spread of social orphans.

External migration of the population.

Although domestic labour mobility is generally low, the worsening socioeconomic situation in the country, the spread of unemployment, and the low price of labour compels people to migrate from Ukraine temporarily in search of work or to leave Ukraine to take up permanent residence in countries with more favourable employment conditions. According to expert estimates, labour migration from the country comprises about five million persons per year. This migration is mainly illegal. For example, in 2000 45,000 inhabitants travelled abroad from the Chernovtsy Region of Ukraine alone for the purpose of illegally securing work. By contrast, only 33 persons were reported to have legally secured work in the near and far abroad. Moreover, in recent years labour migration has taken on criminal features. A rise in activity in trading in people has beeoted. Thus, from the beginning of 2001, in the Donetsk Region alone, the Criminal Investigations Administration uncovered four organized criminal groups engaged in the trade in human beings. Twelve Ukrainian citizens and six Turkish citizens were identified as a part of the groups. Twelve companies were also exposed which, under the guise of finding employment for citizens, were recruiting young women and girls to engage in the sex business and prostitution.

There have also been instances of Ukrainian citizens travelling abroad for the purpose of hiring themselves out to military and paramilitary units, including illegal groups. The Security Service of Ukraine Administration in the Ivano-Frankovsk Region has disseminated information that in recent times there has been a growth in the numbers of those who leave to serve in foreign military groups. Foreign radical political organizations and commercial structures are actively recruiting young Ukrainians into legal and illegal militarized formations. Ukrainians often wind up in the French Foreign Legion. In the course of the year 2000 alone, the special services have prevented eighteen instances of departure abroad by Ukrainian citizens who had decided to reinforce the ranks of foreign legionnaires. At the same time, it is known to the Security Service of Ukraine that a number of inhabitants of the Ivano-Frankovsk, Nadvirnian, Kalush, Kolomyia, Kosov, and Dolina Districts are serving in the French Foreign Legion. According to estimates by the Security Service of Ukraine Administration, this tendency will’ intensify given the existing socio-economic situation.

The number of citizens of Ukraine leaving to take up residence in foreign countries remains at a high level. In 1999, 110,600 persons left Ukraine, and 100,300 left in 2000. Permanent emigration from Ukraine involves a number of ethnic groups, most notably Jews, Germans, Czechs, Hungarians, and Greeks, but also, to a lesser extent, Ukrainians and Russians. Those who leave are usually of working-age with a high level of education. Between 1995-99, about 6,000 workers in the field of science and about 1000 from the arts and culture left Ukraine.

The trend of migration into Ukraine, as was already noted, has diminished (the number of immigrants decreased from 65,800 in 2000 to 53,700 persons in 1999), with migrants from third-world countries prevailing.

The high level of emigration combined with a decreasing number of immigrants is bringing about a negative balance of migration (in 1999 and 2000 it came to -0.9 per 1,000 persons in the population), and serves as one of the factors in the reduction of the total population in the country.

Consequences of negative trends in Ukraine‘s demographic situation

The unfavorable socioeconomic situation and the constant threat of unemployment and destitution are powerful factors in spreading a socially depressed condition in society. This in turn has an extremely unfavorable influence on the demographic situation by reducing the birth rate and growth.

Aging of the population.

The population of Ukraine can be considered old both against the Rosset scale and using United Nations norms. Using the Rosset scale, the part of the population aged 60 and older stands at 20.5 percent. Using United Nations norms, the part of the population aged 65 and older comprises 13.8 percent. In developed countries, the aging of the population occurs due to a lowering of the death rate of working-age people and an increase in longevity. In Ukraine this process has been brought about by a headlong decrease in the birth rate and an increase in the death rate of the working-age population (mainly of men). If demographic tendencies do not change, by 2026 27 percent of Ukraine‘s population will consist of people older than 60.

One widely accepted indicator used to compare standards of living in different countries is the expected longevity at birth. In Ukraine, the value of this index is decreasing. While the expected lifespan stood at 67.1 years for men and 75.4 for women in 1989, in 1999 it was 62.8 and 73.2, respectively. This is ten years less than for men in developed countries with a high level of aging, and five to eight years less for women.

The extremely high death rate for working-age men is also bringing about a distortion in the population structure by sex. In Ukraine, the noticeable excess of the number of women over the number of men begins in the age groups after thirty years of age. With each year, this point is dropping lower down the age pyramid, which will lead to a distortion in reproductive activity-a further drop in the birth rate, an increase in the number of births outside of wedlock, and accompanying increases in the number of incomplete families and social orphans.

Labour resources.

Over the period 1995-99, the labour force remained practically unchanged, staying at a level of thirty million persons. Out of every hundred persons employed in the economy, fifty are women, seventeen are young people aged 15-28, and fourteen are people receiving a pension due to age, disability, or other special conditions. However, the consequences of the depopulation described above will begin to manifest themselves as early as 2007-08, when those born in 1991-92 reach working age. At approximately that time the demographic load on the able-bodied population will begin to grow.

Predictions and scenarios for the development of the demographic situation in Ukraine

Specialists at the Council for the Study of Productive Forces at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine have worked out a forecast for the demographic development of the country to 2076.

One main hypothesis advanced is a palpable inflow into Ukraine of emigrants from Afro-Asian countries. It rests on an expected decrease in the population and a corresponding decrease in the work force as a consequence of the aging of the population. The aggravated problem of filling job slots will make the implementation of measures to attract immigrants from Asia and Africa into the country unavoidable. This is actually the sole source for satisfying the economy’s need for labour and supporting the necessary level of economic utilization of territory.

Two scenarios for the possible development of the demographic situation are laid out. The first assumes that there is a strengthening of positive trends in stabilizing the standard of living of the population and a transition to industrial growth in two or three years. The second assumes a further aggravation of negative trends in the socio-economic situation of the country.

Under the first scenario, the following developments are expected:

·                     A stabilization and gradual growth in the number of arrivals from Russia (up to 70-90 thousand persons annually in the years 2010-30; that is, at the level of 1996-1997) and from the countries of the Transcaucasus Region, with a lowering of the intensity of reverse flows.

·                     An intensification (in the next three or four years) of the return of eth nic Ukrainians and representatives of peoples deported earlier (primarily Crimean Tartars).

·                     The number of those arriving will exceed the number leaving as early as 2003. The balance of migration will grow gradually, and in 2015 will reach a surplus of 150,000 persons;

·                     At the same time, a sharp increase in arrivals from the countries of Asia and Africa may be expected. The number of immigrants from those countries may reach 300,000 persons in 2050 and 400,000 persons annually at the end of the forecast period. Migrants from those regions will arrive in Ukraine primarily to stay; only fifteen to twenty percent will return or migrate to third countries.

·                     The dimensions of departures for countries of the West will stabilize at a level of 43,000 to 47,000 persons annually in 2004-05, with a gradual decrease to 30,000 annually at the end of the forecast period. Beginning as soon as 2005-07, the main part of that flow will be made up of temporary labor migrants, while the permanent emigration to countries of the West will drop to zero.

·                     The intensity of migratory contacts with the countries of the former Soviet Union will drop sharply during the second half of the forecast period, and they will lose their status as Ukraine‘s basic migratory partners.

If events develop according to this optimistic variant, the trend in the birth rate will change. The inflow of immigrants in the 2020s will also stimulate a rejuvenation and an increase in population, which as a result will reach approximately 52 million by 2060 and increase by another six million in the following fifteen years.

Under the second, and more negative, scenario, the following developments are expected:

·                     The size of the migratory inflow from Russia will be reduced from 47,000 persons in 1999 to 35,000 persons annually, beginning in 2001, and to ten to fifteen thousand persons at the end of the forecast period.

·                     The dimensions of arrivals from the European republics of the former Soviet Union will decrease from 5,700 to four and two thousand persons, respec tively.

·                     The scale of departures of ethnic Russians, Belorussians, and Moldovans for their historical homelands will increase to 100,000-105,000 persons aually beginning in 2002-03. In 1998, the figure was about 95,000, and in 1999, as a consequence of military operations in Chechnya, it was less than 60,000.

·                     The flow of permanent migration to countries of the West will expand sig nificantly. The number of departures for these countries will increase from 47,000-50,000 persons in 1995-99 to 60,000-80,000 over the course of the first decades of the twenty-first century, after which it will gradually decrease to 45,000 annually.

·                     The share of returning labor migrants in the general migratory flow is predicted to be at a level of 15-25 percent. It is assumed (based on the migration legislation principles of countries that may potentially receive Ukrainian workers) that the most common length of time for work abroad will be a three years, and that 40-50 percent of labor migrants will be re turning to Ukraine specifically after three years, while a further five to ten percent will return after a more lengthy period.

·                     The flow of arrivals from the countries of Asia and Africa, practically unchanged in 2001-04, will begin to grow in 2015-20. However, the level at which immigrants stay will be low during the initial stages of the increase, with up to a third of the flow returning home or emigrating to more prosperous third countries. The proportion of those settling and staying among the arrivals from the countries of the East is expected to increase after 2012. At that time, as a consequence of lengthy depopulation and intensive emigration, the numbers and density of Ukraine‘s population will be seventeen to twenty percent lower than the current level (creating potential living space for immigrants from the East). Therefore, after 2030 the dimensions of migrant arrivals from these regions will be greater than under the optimistic scenario. The balance of migration of Ukraine‘s population under the worst-case variant of development of events in 2005-13 will stabilize at a level close to the current one. Over the course of the years 2014-15, the value of the negative migratory balance will decrease sharply, and several years after that Ukraine will become a country of immigration.

Under this pessimistic scenario, the demographic crisis will become ever more acute, and the population will gradually decrease. In 2076 it will comprise 40,200,000 persons.

Ethnic makeup of the population and interethnic relations

Ukraine is a multiethnic and multi-religious state. More than one hundred ethnic peoples have traditionally resided on its territory. The titular ethnic group consists of Ukrainians, whose share in the total population comes to more than 70 percent. The second most numerous ethnic group are the Russians, who constitute more than twenty percent of the population. Crimean Tartars, Karaims, and Krymchaks claim the status of “native peoples” of Ukraine. Russians advince the demand that they be recognized as an “ethnic group that forms a state.”

General characteristics

The population of Ukraine, as of 1 January 2001, belongs to fifty-four religious denominations. Among these, the Orthodox (Ukrainians from all regions of Ukraine except the western regions, as well as Russians), along with Greek-rite Catholics (Ukrainians from Ukraine‘s western regions), are predominant. Catholicism (mainly ethnic Poles), Judaism, Islam, and various Protestant denominations (including those which are ethnically defined, such as, for example, the Reformist Church of the ethnic Hungarians in Transcarpathia) are also widely represented.

Over the course of the years 1990-2000, as a consequence of the international migratory processes noted above, the correlation of ethnic groups and their absolute numbers in Ukraine have undergone changes. It will only be possible to establish what these changes are with a sufficient degree of reliability as a result of the forthcoming census.

The peculiarities of Ukraine’s historical development, namely the lengthy periods that some of its territories spent as parts of different empires and later as part of the USSR, brought about significant sociocultural differences not only between representatives of Ukraine’s various ethnic peoples, but also between regional groupings of the titular ethnic group. The latter manifests itself in several ways. Among Ukrainians, there are differences in the practice of using the Ukrainian and Russian languages in daily life, and in the attitude toward these languages and toward Russian and Russian-language culture. There are also differences in geocultural (and, accordingly, a geopolitical) orientation, either facing toward Russia or toward the countries of Europe.

The presence of ethnic peoples residing in compact groups on Ukraine’s territory (Hungarians, Romanians, Moldovans, and Bulgarians), the high degree of Russification of the southern and eastern regions of the country, and the differences in ethnocultural identification of the titular ethnic group result in a complex interethnic situation in several regions of Ukraine. This creates the potential for possible separatist manifestations.

Transcarpathia is one of the most variegated regions in an ethic sense; representatives of more than 90 ethnic peoples reside in the region’s territory, in particular a group of ethnic Hungarians numbering 160,000).

Bessarabia (the southwestern part of Odessa Region) and Bukovina (Chernovtsy Region) are a territory where Romanians and Moldovans live in compact groups, to which certain circles in Romania lay claim, and which may become centers of Romanian separatism.

The southern regions of Ukraine (Nikolaev, Kherson, Zaporozhye, and Odessa Regions) and Eastern Ukraine (Kharkov, Lugansk, and Donetsk Regions) are presumed to be zones of action of the “Russian factor.” However, the interethnic and inter-religious situation in the Crimea is the most acute situation today.

The Crimea. According to data from the census of 1989, representatives of 89 ethnic groups were resident in the Crimea, out of a total of 132 such groups in Ukraine as a whole. Altogether, there were 2,256,000 persons in the Crimea, of whom Russians constituted 67 percent and Ukrainians 26 percent, while Be-lorassians, Crimean Tartars, Jews, Germans, Bulgarians, Greeks, Poles, Gypsies, and other ethnic groups together made up seven percent. The high degree of Russification of the Crimea is confirmed by the fact that 83 percent of the population (including 47 percent of the Ukrainians) considers Russian to be their native language.

Complex socio-demographic and political processes took place in the Crimea during the period from 1989-2000. The socio-demographic processes were brought about, first of all, by the mass return of Crimean Tartars to their historical homeland. The political processes were brought about by the breakup of the USSR and by the establishment of Ukraine‘s independence and the autonomous republic of the Crimea (the ARC) – a territorial autonomous entitiy – as a part of Ukraine with ethnic Russians as the predominant group in the population.

Ethnic Ukrainians make up about 25 percent of the Crimea‘s population, the majority of these Ukrainians being Russian-speakers. This situation demands that a rather balanced position be taken in the introduction of the Ukrainian language and the expansion of the presence of Ukrainian culture in the informational and educational field in the ARC. At the present time, the conditions in the autonomous entity for a more complete ethnocultural identification of the Ukrainians are inadequate. Only four Ukrainian schools (out of 583 in the ARC) and only two Ukrainian libraries are functioning at present; four Ukrainian-language printed publications are being published (out of 240 being published in the autonomous entity). Only fourteen congregations of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Kiev patriarchy – the independent, ethnically-oriented church – are active.

Crimean Tartars are returning to the Crimea after their forcible deportation in 1944. About 300,000 Crimean Tartars, representing twelve percent of the Peninsula‘s population, are resident in the autonomous entity at the present time. The Crimean Tartars speak the Crimean Tartar language (which belongs to the Turkic language group) and profess Sunni Islam. The ethnic group of Crimean Tartars in the ARC has organs of ethnic self-government; however, they are not recognized by Ukraine‘s organs of governmental authority.

In August 1999, the “Arraid” Inter-regional Association of Public Organizations conducted a sociological study jointly with the Department of Psychology at Tauride University. According to this study, the Crimean Tartars are firmly oriented toward maintaining their ethnic and religious identity. According to data from the poll, 77 percent of Crimean Tartars would prefer a school for their children and grandchildren with instruction conducted in the Crimean Tartar language and providing conventional and religious education, while 18 percent prefer a school providing a primarily religious education. Only five percent of those polled would prefer a school without religious education. In another finding, the Crimean Tartars are inclined to make the Crimea in particular their permanent place of residence. The overwhelming majority (76 percent) of those polled declared that they have no desire to leave the Crimea for any other place at all.

Out of every three children bora in the Crimea today, two are Crimean Tartars. There are grounds to conclude that a significant demographic shift should be expected in the direction of an increase both of the absolute number of Crimean Tartars in the Crimea and of their share in the total population of the Autonomous entity as early as the next generation.

Ethnic Russians constitute about 60 percent of the total population in the Crimean peninsula. The overwhelming majority of these Russians profess Orthodoxy and belong to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church in canonical unity with the Moscow Patriarchy. The political, socioeconomic, and sociocultural interests of the Russians in the Crimea are actively supported by Russia, where by no means all political and social circles have resigned themselves to the “loss” of the Crimea.

Russian schools subordinate to the Ministry of Defense of Russia function on the territory of the Autonomous entity, while a branch of Moscow State University carries out recruitment of students. Competitions for student compositions about Russia, the Russian language, and Russian culture are organized actively, and scientific and scholarly conferences, festivals, and tours of performers are conducted with the participation of representatives from the Russian Federation.

As a result, the degree of Russification of the Autonomous entity remains very high; out of 583 general education schools in the Crimea, 570 are Russian-language schools. Teaching in Crimean institutes of higher education is conducted in Russian. The market for books in the Autonomous entity is 99.9 percent filled by Russian-language editions. All this testifies to the fact that the Russians in the Autonomous entity possess the ability to maintain their ethnic and religious identity. At the same time, the Russians are also oriented toward permanent residence in the Crimea. 76 percent of those polled answered that under no circumstances do they plan to leave the Crimea. Two percent could leave for other regions of Ukraine, thirteen percent for countries of the West, and not a single one of those polled expressed a desire to leave for Russia.

The predominance of ethnic Russians in the makeup of the Autonomous entity’s population, including the degree of the population’s general Russification, the non-acceptance by certain political circles in the Russian Federation of the Crimea’s detachment from Russia, and the maintenance of a Russian presence on the peninsula (including a military presence) have brought about (and are bringing about) significant separatist or pro-Russian sentiments among a significant portion of the Crimea’s population. There have been attempts to bring about the secession of the Autonomous entity from Ukraine.

On the other hand, some Crimean Tartars have put forward slogans about creating an ethnic Crimean Tartar autonomous entity, the restitution of property lost at the time of deportation, and full-fledged participation in processes of privatizing Crimean enterprises and sharing of land. In their claims, the Crimean Tartars rely on help from Turkey as a Muslim country in which, moreover, a rather sizeable Crimean Tartar diaspora operates.

It is along the line of the interrelations between the ethnic groups of Crimean Tartars and Russians in particular (more specifically, of the Russian-speaking socio-cultural group within the population of Crimea) that interethnic and inter-religious tension is to be observed. This tension is threatening to become acute under the influence of both internal and external factors.

In connection with this, it should be noted that there has been little desire among Crimean Tartars to create their own state. Only five percent of those polled expressed favor for such a prospect. The majority of respondents strive for the establishment in the Crimea of a territorial ethnic autonomous entity within Ukraine. Another 27 percent thinkt that the Crimea should remain an autonomous republic within Ukraine – that is, it should remain in its present status. These results suggest an absence of fertile ground for radical extremist and separatist tendencies among the Crimean Tartars.

What is alarming is the fact that a significant portion of the Crimean Tartars polled-35 percent-think-that their life is getting significantly worse with the passage of time, while another ten percent say it is worse, but not much. Only fourteen percent said their lives were getting better. 58 percent pointed to a worsening of living conditions in comparison with where they lived before, and the overwhelming majority (76 percent) stated that the average monthly income per family member among them was no more than fifty grivnas (US$10).

Statements like these have a real basis. Unemployment among the Crimean Tartars stands at 60 percent, as opposed to fifteen to twenty percent for the Crimea as a whole. Moreover, the prospects for satisfying the cultural and educational needs of the Crimean Tartars are doubtful. A problem exists with the level of representation for the Crimean Tartars in organs of government, which leads to the self-isolation of the Crimean Tartars and to interethnic alienation.

At the same time, the Russian population views the idea of extending privileges to the Crimean Tartars very critically. 47 percent of those polled think the granting of such privileges to be unfair, while only 27 percent are of the opposite opinion. However, judging by results of the poll, the standard of living of the Russians in the Crimea is significantly higher than the standard of living of the Crimean Tartars. Only fifteen percent of those polled said that the average monthly income per family member was no more than fifty grivnas, and unemployment among the Russians is only eight percent.

The Russians living in Crimea have a sharply negative attitude toward a potential status as a territorial ethnic autonomous entity within Ukraine. Not a single one of the Russians polled supported that status, but fifteen percent of the Russians polled think that the Crimea should become an autonomous republic within Russia, while another twenty-four percent think it should become an independent country. As was mentioned above, among the Crimean Tartars, only five percent think that Crimea should become an independent country.

Such moods are fertile soil for incitement of interethnic dissension, which is already manifesting itself today in the form of inter-religious conflicts. Such conflicts were noted in the summer of 2000, when the Spiritual Board of Crimean Muslims suspended its membership in the “Peace is God’s Gift” interfaith association to signify a protest against establishment of the Simferopol and Crimean eparchies of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and against crosses for worshippers and display boards saying, “The Crimea is the cradle of Orthodoxy.” Crimean Tartars tore down such a cross in the village of Morskoe in October 2000. Clashes between them and the Orthodox population were avoided, thanks to the intervention of law enforcement agencies. Conflict between the Crimean eparchy of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Crimean Tartars over a former monastery building was prevented in September 2001 only by the arrival of President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma. However, the danger of conflicts of this kind remains and is becoming more acute, particularly in connection with accusations directed at the Crimean Tartars over their ties to Chechen militants, participation in military actions against Russia’s Federal troops in Chechnya, and so on.

According to the results of a sociological poll of the ARC’S population conducted by UCEPS in March 2001, the majority of those polled (61 percent) do not exclude the possibility that religious conflicts involving the use of force will arise in the Crimea, and just less than a third (27 percent) of the Crimea’s inhabitants are sure that such conflicts are impossible.

Predictions

Over the coming fifteen to twenty years, the demographic situation in the Crimea will change substantially. The proportion of the Crimean Tartar population in the general population will increase by means both of natural growth and the further immigration of Tartars from the Central Asian countries.

In 1995, it was assumed that 400-600,000 Crimean Tartars would return to the Crimea in the next five years. However, that did not happen, and only 50-60,000 actually returned.

In the event that a cardinal improvement in the socioeconomic situation does not occur, a sharp radicalization among the Crimean Tartars is possible. The assimilation of the Crimean Tartars should not be expected; rather, Crimea may evolve either in the direction of a Ukrainian Switzerland or in the direction of a Ukrainian Kosovo.

A poll by the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine provided the following results:

Of the various groupings identified in Ukraine, Belorussians are the least inclined to maintain a unique culture, with only 29.9 percent expressing this intention. At the same time, representatives of other ethnic peoples (Poles, Bulgarians, Moldovans, and Jews) registered a rather high level of desire to preserve their cultural uniqueness. Those polled suggested that this desire was in reaction to attempts at forcible Ukrainization.

According to the results of investigations into the urge to leave for various historical homelands, Jews (52 percent) and Germans (45.7 percent) demonstrated the strongest tendency in this direction. The desire to emigrate was insignificant among Hungarians and Russians.

Trends among Russo-Ukrainian groupings

Three organizations have come forward with sharp criticism for the Ministry of Education of Ukraine: the Russian Movement, the Russo-Ukrainian Union, and “For a Unified Russia.” These organizations do not like “Kiev‘s official policy of eliminating Russian-language education in Ukraine and encouraging assimilation of Russian and Russian-speaking citizens.” According to official data, over the last decade the Ukrainian government has changed the language of teaching from Russian to Ukrainian in 1300 schools. At the present time, teaching in the Ukrainian language is conducted in 90 percent of the country’s schools, although half the population considers Russian to be its native language.

Small but politically active structures exist: “The Civil Congress of Ukraine,” the Party of Slavic Unity, the “Union” party, the SLOn association, and the Party of Regional Rebirth of Ukraine (PRVU), among others. Here, regionalism or frank separatism, the battle for union with Russia or for a restoration of the USSR, are more likely to be colored by ethnocultural factors. Rather than these extreme goals, the real objectives are presumed to be securing the status for Russian as an official language and the retention of a high degree of Russification of public life, culture, and education in the country.

ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH ISSUES Demographic process and regional peculiarities of natural movement of population in 1998 change

Birth rate, death rate and population growth coefficients (per 1,000 people)

 

The demographic situation in Ukraine, which has acquired the features of an acute demographic crisis in recent years, became increasingly complicated in 1998. That was evidenced by the fact that a population of 50.5 million people in early 1998 had decreased to 50.1 million people by early 1999, as well as by the growing depopulation.

The population is decreasing annually because the number of deceased has exceeded that of newborns, by 39,000 in 1991, 100,000 in 1992 and 299,700 in 1995, including 166,800 in urban settlements and 133,900 in rural areas. Thus, 55% of the natural decrease of population occurred in urban settlements in 1998.

In 1998 the tendency towards a decrease of the total population continued. The urban population decreased by 254,100 people, while the rural population decreased by almost 400,000, approximately the same level as in recent years.

A decrease of the total population was observed in all regions. The most essential decrease of the total population occurred in such highly urbanized regions of Ukraine as Donetsk (56,500), Dniepropetrovsk (30,400), Kharkiv (26,500), the Autonomous Republic of the Crimea and the city of Sevastopol (28,600). The number of people in these regions mainly decreased at the expanse of urban population. These five regions make up 44.3% (174,000 people) of the total population decrease in 1998. The group of regions with a decrease of population also includes the regions of Odesa (19,200), Zaporizhzhia (18,700), Chernigiv (15,600), Vinnytsia (15,600) and Sumy (15,300).

These nine regions and the Autonomous Republic of the Crimea as a whole make up about 66% of the population decrease in Ukraine. The lowest population decrease in 1998 was observed in the regions of Zakarpattia (800 people), Rivne (1,900), Ivano-Frankivsk (3,000) and Chernivtsi (3,100 people); the natural increase was positive in the first two regions (1,500 and 4,000 people, respectively).

The decreasing population figures are a result of a further natural decrease of the population and negative indices of migration (both in urban settlements and rural areas). But the migration indices in rural areas are 6.4 times as low as in urban settlements.

Regional peculiarities of the demographic situation are formed as a result of interstate relations, the ethnic background of people in a certain region, the basic gene pool, moral and religious conditions, etc. Since the influence of these conditions has its distinctions in a concrete region, the state of the demographic process there gives a mosaic picture of reproduction of the population both in quantitative and qualitative respects.

A natural decrease of population has been recorded in all the regions of Ukraine except for Zakarpattia and Rivne regions. The decrease was highest in the regions of Chernigiv (10.8 people per 1,000), Sumy (9.2), Lugansk (8.9), Donetsk (8.7), Poltava (8.5), Kirovograd (8.3) and Cherkasy (8.2), and lowest in the regions of Ivano-Frankivsk (0.6), Chernivtsi (0.8) and Volyn (1.4).

The socio-economic crisis in Ukraine is the cause of the crisis situation in terms of population figures. Birth rates are still falling sharply. In 1998 the number of newborns (419,200) decreased by 23,400 as compared to 1997, and by 138,300 as compared to 1993. The birth rate coefficient in 1998 was 8.3 per 1,000 people. That is one of the lowest levels in Europe and in the world.

This index is even lower in the south-eastern (7.3%) and north-eastern (7.6%) regions of Ukraine. Only the western region is still characterized by a more or less considerable birth rate (11.7 in 1997, 11.3 in 1998). A relatively high birth rate level is observed in rural areas of Rivne (14.5%), Volyn (13.5%), Chernivtsi (12.9%), and Zakarpattia (12.8%) regions.

The total birth rate index has decreased to a level, which evidences a lack of population reproduction. The average number of children born by one woman was 1.1 in 1998 (1.0 in cities, 1.6 in villages).

A sharp deterioration of the situation of population mortality was observed in Ukraine in the 1990s, especially in the first years of the decade. The annual number of deaths increased by 163,000: from 630,000 in 1990 to 793,000 in 1995. As of 1996 one can observe a very slow decrease of the mortality coefficient, the total one from 15.2% to 14.3%, the standardized from 14.0% to 12.9%.

One can also observe a significant difference in various regions as to mortality coefficient. The highest levels were registered in the north-eastern (17.1%) and central (15.9%) regions, the lowest ones in the western region (12.1%).

The decreasing birth rates and rising mortality rates result in a deepening depopulation crisis. In 1998 the natural increase remained negative; the loss was 6.0% in Ukraine. The worst situation was observed in the north-eastern (- 9.5%) and south-eastern (-8.0%) regions.

Infant mortality in 1998 decreased to 12.8 per 1,000 babies born alive. It was the first decrease of the death rate of babies in the 1990s. As compared to 1997 infant mortality has decreased by 8.8%. A decrease of infant mortality was observed in all the regions of Ukraine; the rates of decrease were highest in the north-eastern (by 12%) and central (by 6%) regions.

Despite the considerable decrease, the coefficient of infant mortality remains the highest in the southern region (14.0%), its lowest level being observed in the central (11.1%) region. A considerable decrease of the death rate of newborn boys and a certain increase of the death rate of girls were observed in the southeastern region (Table 6.1).

Sharply decreasing birth rates cause the health of newborns to be of special concern. It depends essentially on the health of the parents and complications in the course of pregnancy and during delivery. An unfavourable ecological situation favours the expansion of chronic diseases which reaches the reproductive period and creates a closed cycle: a sick mother (father) – sick child – sick teenager – sick parents. The cycle term is 20-25 years, and with each such cycle the pathologic states of newborns become more severe.

Introduction of modern medical and organizational technologies in maternity and childhood protection services has, in spite of the unfavourable ecological situation and limited financing, resulted in a reassuring tendency in terms of neonatal (7.7 per 1,000 alive newborns in 1997 and 7.2 in 1998) and maternal mortality (30.9 and 29.5 per 100,000 of alive newborns, respectively).

The decrease of neonatal mortality took place against the background of a deterioration of the health of babies: while in 1995 only 211.8 of 1,000 newborns had birth defects, in 1998 this number reached 260.3. The acuteness of the prematurity problem is determined by the fact that the sickness rate of premature babies is 3.4 times and early neonatal mortality is 16.0 times as high as analogous indices for the mature.

Thus in all the areas of the central region the level of neonatal mortality and prematurity is the lowest (on average) in Ukraine, while in most regions of the southern and south-eastern regions the index of neonatal mortality remains high against a high level of prematurity.

In the south-eastern region, and in some areas of the western (Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Ternopil) region the high level of neonatal mortality (lower prematurity than in Ukraine on average) is mainly determined by a high level of infant mortality from birth defects of development and states originating from the perinatal period.

The high levels of maternal and infant mortality are persisting in the regions hardest hit by the after-effects of the Chernobyl catastrophe. These are Kyiv, Zhitomyr and Chernigiv regions as well as the developed industrial complex (Zaporizhzhia, Kirovograd).

Constantly low levels of mortality were observed in the recent years only in Lugansk and Vinnytsia regions (Table 6.2).

An analysis of statistical data shows that there are regions in Ukraine where the demographic situation has acquired a special character. Among them:

The south-eastern region (Dniepropetrovsk, Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkiv regions) with the highest population decrease, especially in the urban population. This decrease has been determined mainly by mortality exceeding natality as well as by the negative balance of population migration.

The capital region (Kyiv and district) with a considerable decrease of the urban population. The decrease of the urban population was observed side by side with that of the rural population.

The central region (Vinnytsia, Zhitomyr, Kirovograd, Poltava, Sumy, Khmelnitskyi, Cherkasy and Chernigiv regions) is characterized by a steadily increasing depopulation.

The southern region (AR of the Crimea, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson regions) is also characterized by a decrease of population (both urban and rural).

The western region (Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil and Chernivtsi regions) is the most stable as to demographic development. It is still a region of natural reproduction.

The favourable age structure of the population is one of the factors causing a natural increase of the population in the western region. The youngest population and, therefore, the highest potential of demographic reproduction are characteristic of the region. Social and natural conditions for vital activities are the most important factors of reproduction. Living conditions for some people in certain regions of Ukraine have a negative effect on the quantitative indices of population reproduction. This mostly concerns the south-eastern region where considerable hyperurbanized areas with permanently high pollution of the atmospheric air, water, soil and food products affect public health, especially the health of children. A considerable spread of all diseases, especially those connected with the quality of the environment (malignant tumours, pregnancy pathologies, maternal anomalies, etc.) are characteristic of the region.

The same influence of unfavourable natural conditions is manifested in other highly urbanized regions of Ukraine. In the future such regions cannot be an essential source of population reproduction both because of the low natural increase, and because the physical state of the people has been weakened as a result of the natural and socio-economic conditions that have developed.

Considerable pollution by radioactive elements will also have a negative effect on population reproduction for a long period of time. Almost 2,350,000 people live in territories with different degrees of radioactive pollution. Various factors connected with this phenomenon determine the deterioration of reproduction indices. This mostly concerns areas of the central and capital regions, especially the Polissia parts of Kyiv and Zhitomyr regions, which have become areas of a demographic catastrophe.

The regional peculiarities of the demographic situation in Ukraine are caused by various reasons of social, economic and ecological character and this situation can be improved only with due regard to the fact that only the creation of favourable conditions for people’s vital activities will ensure positive progress in the demographic processes in Ukraine.

 

Table 6.1. Medical-demographic indices in the regions of Ukraine in 1998

Regions	Per 1,000 people					Deaths before age of one per 1,000 newborns
	Born	Deceased	Married	Divorced	Natural increase (loss)	Both sexes	Boys	Girls
South-eastern	7.3	15.2	6.0	4.0	-8.0	13.0	15.4	13.0
Southern	8.3	14.0	6.2	4.0	-5.7	14.0	17.2	11.1
North-eastern	7.6	17.1	6.1	3.5	-9.5	13.1	15.0	11.4
Central	8.9	15.9	6.5	3.4	-7.0	11.1	13.3	9.1
Western	11.3	12.1	6.4	2.4	-1.1	12.8	14.9	10.9
Ukraine	8.3	14.3	6.2	3.6	-6.0	12.8	14.9	10.5

 

 

Table 6.2. Some indices of activity of obstetrical service in 1998

Regions	Prematurity (from the data of maternity hospitals), %	Neonatal mortality	maternal mortality (per 100000 of alive newborns)
Ukraine	4.89	7.2	29.5
South-Eastern region	–	–	–
Lugansk	4.57	5.1	5.5
Dniepropetrovsk	5.02	7.0	21.3
Donetsk	5.81	8.4	17.9
Zaporizhia	6.2	7.1	53.4
Kirovograd	4.72	6.3	41.0
Kharkiv	4.84	8.0	32.7
Southern region	–	–	–
AR of the Crimea	5.03	8.8	25.6
Mykolaiv	6.57	7.6	27.3
Odesa	5.05	6.5	23.5
Kherson	4.8	7.9	53.6
South-Eastern region	–	–	–
Poltava	4.32	7.6	75.8
Sumy	4.10	7.3	19.0
Chernigiv	3.72	7.8	31.0
Central region	–	–	–
Vinnytsia	4.70	5.9	11.9
Zhitomyr	4.36	6.6	42.5
Kyiv	4.34	6.5	87.4
Khmelnitsky	3.59	6.7	7.2
Cherkasy	4.44	4.9	33.0
Western Region	–	–	–
Volyn	4.73	6.4	31.7
Zakarpatia	5.88	5.1	32.8
Ivano-Frankivsk	4.37	8.2	25.3
Lviv	4.78	8.1	25.5
Rivne	4.05	6.6	26.5
Ternopil	4.27	8.1	16.3
Chernivtsi	4.64	5.6	19.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This part contains data of the All-Ukrainian census of the population at the data of 5 December 2001 about the number and structure of the permanent urban and rural population by sex, age groups and marital status. The part also contains the distribution of the population at the age of 100 and older by sex and age groups, and the distribution of the women by the age and the number of children in Ukraine and regions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The female population who had a child by educational level and number of children UKRAINE (total population, all women)
	The female population who had a child		of which
			female that have educational				persons that doesn’t have primary education		letterless
			higher education		secondary education
	female	number of children	female	number of children	female	number of children	female	number of children	female	number of children
Female population aged 15 years and over:	17278995	33505816	6726418	11282241	9781211	20165771	620508	1640124	133799	395148
including: 15 years	692	723	–	–	669	698	16	18	6	7
15-19	78211	82734	5582	5753	72142	76366	358	458	89	120
20-24	698280	819928	227054	246811	469756	570895	754	1386	171	293
25-29	1280441	1769119	591188	741904	686967	1023453	728	1770	205	469
30-34	1421896	2301506	742753	1097614	676129	1198374	813	2366	229	646
35-39	1615399	2937924	858085	1425015	753687	1505858	843	2701	294	861
40-44	1860310	3607926	969903	1725246	886356	1874507	984	3277	308	1001
45-49	1726238	3418009	874211	1589056	848291	1820950	1172	3805	278	902
50-54	1610449	3195137	770477	1388043	835864	1797442	1983	5939	429	1438
55-59	1085327	2223408	412203	739095	664800	1462006	6615	18555	919	2745
60-64	1810912	3745673	563429	998870	1207526	2640806	34978	92929	4110	12006
65-69	1165045	2552295	278072	503767	774055	1745804	98557	259939	13930	42235
70 and over	2925633	6850940	433425	821010	1905559	4449168	472719	1246990	112834	332425
Age not specified	854	1217	36	57	79	142	4	9	3	7
Of total population: female aged 15-49 years	8680775	14937146	4268776	6831399	4393328	8070403	5652	15763	1574	4292

 

 

 

Future trends of demographic development (2000-2050)

A number of projections made in different Russian and Ukrainian institutions and by different authors and the UN prospects were examined. Projections made before mid-90th were more optimistic than ones made later. Almost all projections made in the end of the XXth century don’t assume Russian and Ukrainian population increase.

Populatioon-decrease can be ensured by such values of demographic characteristics that they are hardly attainable in the next decades.

Here we dwell upon the UN projections up to the year 2050 (UN World Population Prospects, the 2004 Revision). For each country medium, high and low variants are based on the same assumptions for LE and migration. For all variants TFRs for Ukraine are supposed to be lower than those for Russia, while values of LE – higher.

Annual net migration for Russia is set to be equal to 50 thousand, and –100 thousand for Ukraine.

Fig. 12 demonstrates total population size dynamics for Russia and Ukraine in 2000-2050 according to medium, high and low variants. For all scenarios total population will decrease (more rapidly for Ukraine), this decrease being determined by theassumptions made. Thus, according to the medium variant by the year 2050 Russia’s population can decrease by 24 % as compared with population size in 2000 (Ukraine’s – by 46 %).

Differences in fertility assumptions result in substantial differences in age structures both for Russia and Ukraine. Fig. 13a-13c demonstrate dynamics of proportions of children and the elderly for medium, high and low variants for Russia, Ukraine and the whole Europe. For all variants the gap between the proportions of children and the elderly is increasing, being higher for Ukraine. For the medium variant the difference between the proportions of the elderly and children in 2000 for Russia was 0.1% (2.9 % Ukraine, 2.8 % for Europe), by 20250 it can reach 14.5 % for Russia (25.6 % for Ukraine, 19 % for Europe).

Population age structures for Russia and Ukraine in 2025 and 2050 (medium variant) age given on Fig. 14 a, b showing further progress of population ageing. This process will develop according to all considered scenarios having profound and far-reaching consequences forcing Governments to reassess many established economic, social and political policies and programmes.

Results of the study may contribute to better understanding of demographic situation in Russia and Ukraine within the European context and will allow to use more widely the experience of each of these countries in elaboration of social policies.